- XAU/USD is holding in longer-term bullish territory, but temporary strength in the greenback has flushed out short term speculative gold positions.
- The Jackson Hole has confirmed a lower for longer stance at the Fed, gold to benefit from lower yields.
Gold markets had seen volatile price action leading into the Jackson Hole event with spot prices trading in a range of between $1,910.23 and $1,976.65 on the day.
At the time of writing, gold is trading at $1,931, down 1.19% on the day as the US dollar index, (DXY), reclaims the 93 handle after falling to a low of 92.42.
Gold has been bought-up heavily in 2020 as investors search for a safe haven given the geopolitical tensions and the risks associated with the coronvirus spread.
However, at the same time, the markets had been in anticipation of a much weaker dollar as well as lower US yields pertaining to the Federal Reserve’s change of tact and well telegraphed easing bias.
Lower for longer
Powell confirmed that the Fed will aim for inflation to average 2% over an unspecified period, which essentially means that the Fed is not expecting higher inflation.
Gold is not a hedge for deflation, but considering the macro tailwinds and prospects of real rates being suppressed, the environment for precious metals remains favourable.
Moreover, the US dollar has now officially lost its carry trade advantage, something noted by analysts at TD Securities, however, warning that it doesn’t mean its due for a reversal:
The move to AIT is hardly a surprise but reinforces that the USD’s real yield advantage has been lost.
This poses a challenge for the USD from a cyclical perspective and gives more credence to chip away at the USD’s longstanding overvaluation.
Tactically, USD shorts are deeply entrenched, but that doesn’t mean it is due for a reversal.
On gold, the analysts argue that trend followers remain well-positioned to profit from further increases in the complex, and the bar for significant liquidations is high given extreme readings in upside momentum.